I continue to be impressed by the rapid evolution of blockchain concepts, although I persistently remind myself, just how much of this is hype?
Recently, one of the stars of Shark Tank, Robert Hejavec was interviewed by TheStreet’s Scott Gamm to get Robert’s views on Cybersecurity, privacy and privacy laws, and his bullish views for cryptocurrencies.
Robert spends a good portion of the interview on cybersecurity, but when the discussion gets around to cybercurrencies, his points center on regulation, speculation, and how/why exchanges are prone to hacks. He continues his speculation, claiming that although he’s conceptually long on Bitcoin and other alt-coins, he considers the market now as highly speculative – thus get in, get out. FOMO is driving much of the price as well.
Blockchain’s future is strong and it will change much of how we interact in the world, I do believe that. As Robert says in his interview, blockchain offers many possibilities, such as helping prove identity. A new model of distributed computing and distributed storage also hold promise. Yet, when I read blockchain whitepapers, I see great ideas that are still scams. That is not to say the authors intend their idea to be a scam, but it will be one none-the-less.
Later in Robert’s interview, he argues that blockchain is not a technology that will change the world today – this is long term play. Just as with AI, there’s tremendous promise, but it could take a while. Robert’s guess? Five years. My guess? Either three years or twelve years. The near term leaders may already exist and we might see mainstream acceptance to real world problems very soon. Another possibility I see, consider how Facebook took over social in later wave of internet based social experiments (AOL, MySpace, etc), blockchain successes may arrive in ways no one sees coming in next decade. It is difficult to tell.
Let’s get back to the title of the post. Robert Hejavec is a very smart and successful businessman. I would not want to discount what he has to say only because of his celebrity status, but I was left with this feeling of jumping the shark. Ellen DeGeneres’ recent skit comparing Bitcoin to a digital goat that probably didn’t help. If you haven’t seen the video, I recommend it. It is worth a laugh.
If you want to know what bitcoin is, I learned about it. A bit. pic.twitter.com/txICiTXYgi
— Ellen DeGeneres (@TheEllenShow) February 15, 2018
Did Bitcoin jump the shark?
Of course Bitcoin and blockchain are not the same, but did bitcoin, and in relation, blockchain jump the shark? Celebrity sighting aside, absolutely not. Bitcoin and alt-coins are going to plummet to basement lows. They might then slingshot to astronomical highs. My bet is 70-95% of the current blockchains in existence will be abandoned in the next few years, thus worth nothing. Real money will be lost, but that is a way to flush out what is real and useful.
The decentralization blockchain offers, even when in a closed network as some enterprise blockchains will surely be, will change how businesses as well as individuals interact with the world around us. As I continue to promote, stay clear of “investing” in cyptocurrencies/blockchain coins if you are not of the gambling type.
I urge you to pay attention. Blockchain is evolving rapidly and its inherent properties will change the way we will conduct business processes sooner than you may think.
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